From December 21 to 22, 2022, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan paid a state visit to Uzbekistan. The leaders of the two countries signed documents such as the alliance relationship treaty and the border demarcation treaty between the two countries. The “Declaration on Alliance Relations” signed by Hau on December 6, 2021 laid a solid foundation for the meeting between the leaders of the two countries and the conclusion of a new treaty. The Hau Alliance is considered to be a very rare and far-reaching diplomatic achievement in Central Asia in recent years, which may change the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia.
The history and reality of the Hau relationship
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Hau became independent one after another. Both countries experienced short-lived political, economic and social chaos in the early days of independence, and the leaders focused more on national construction. In the more than ten years after independence, the two countries have continued to have conflicts over issues such as border territories, cross-border ethnic groups, and water resources, and the cooperation has not achieved significant results. In 2010, when Ukrainian President Karimov met with Kazakh President Nazarbayev at the time, he pointed out that the water issue between Ukrainian and Kazakhstan was very prominent, even reaching the brink of war, and suggested strengthening the relationship between the two countries to resolve the issue. contradiction. Since then, new changes have taken place in the relationship between Haruhi and Uzbekistan. In 2013, the two countries signed the “Strategic Partnership Treaty”, marking the smooth development of bilateral relations. In addition to the constraints of multiple factors in history and reality, the development of Ha-Uzbekistan relations is also affected by external forces, and Ha-Uzbekistan’s diplomatic strategic choices for major powers are also different.
In 2016, Mirziyoyev was elected president of Ukraine. The new policy of “reform and opening up” initiated and promoted by him is refreshing. In terms of diplomacy, Mirziyoyev better practiced the policy of “balance and diversification of major powers” stipulated in the Ukrainian Constitution, focused on strengthening peripheral diplomacy, and worked hard to improve relations with Central Asian countries. At the beginning of taking office, Mirziyoyev eased the territorial conflict with Kyrgyzstan by “exchanging enclaves”. He also actively sought to carry out all-round cooperation with Kazakhstan, downplaying the so-called dispute between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan over the “leadership in Central Asia” in the past. .
Since Tokayev was elected President of Kazakhstan in 2019, he has implemented a series of new policies. Kazakhstan’s relations with major powers and neighboring countries in Central Asia have become more flexible and pragmatic. On November 20, 2022, Kazakhstan held an early presidential election, and Tokayev was re-elected as President of Kazakhstan. On November 26, Tokayev emphasized in his inaugural speech that the priority of Kazakhstan’s diplomacy will be the mutually beneficial cooperation and strategic partnership with Russia, China, Central Asian partner countries and Eurasian Economic Union partners.
During the meeting between the leaders of Hawuja and Uzbekistan, the two countries signed a total of 8 billion US dollars in trade contracts and investment agreements, and reached 15 outcome documents, including the Treaty of the Uzbekistan Alliance, the Agreement on the Demarcation of the Uzbekistan National Boundary, and the Hawuja Citizens Agreement. The Amendment Protocol to the Intergovernmental Agreement on Inter-Governmental Exchanges, etc., as well as the establishment of the Central Asia International Industrial Cooperation Center and the strengthening of cooperation in the fields of education, energy, logistics and transportation.
It has a far-reaching impact on the integration process of Central Asia
The alliance treaty and other documents signed by the two countries are of great significance to the stability and development of the Central Asian region and the promotion of regional integration.
In dealing with regional development and integration affairs, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have different choices in various historical periods. At the beginning of independence, the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan keenly noticed the significance of Central Asian regional integration. From the perspective of historical sentiment, the people of various countries have a high degree of consistency in the geographical, historical and cultural identities of “Central Asia” and “Inner Asia”. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economic ties between the former republics were cut off for a time, and economic recovery was hindered. It was imminent to rebuild a new economic integration relationship. At that time, the security situation around Central Asia was complicated and severe, and strengthening security integration and cooperation was the best choice. In 1994, the three Hadjiu countries signed a treaty and established the Central Asian Economic Union, which was an exploration of regional integration in the early days of Central Asian countries’ independence. In 1998, the organization was renamed “Central Asian Economic Community”, and since then Tajikistan has also been admitted. In 2002, the Central Asian Economic Community was renamed the “Central Asian Cooperation Organization”, and in 2004 Russia was admitted. In 2005, the Central Asian Cooperation Organization made a resolution to join the Russian-led “Eurasian Economic Community” as a whole. As the agenda increasingly shifted toward “de-Central Asianization”, the organization’s attractiveness to Central Asian countries declined rapidly, and Ukraine withdrew in 2008. In addition, in February 2005, Nazarbayev clearly proposed the initiative of establishing the “Union of Central Asian States”. “The permanent friendship treaty between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan can serve as a solid basis for this union, without excluding other countries in the region,” he said. Because of Kazakhstan’s competitive relationship in Central Asia at that time, internal conflicts in Central Asian countries, and the game between Russia and the United States in Central Asia, this initiative of the Kazakh leader did not come true.
From the early days of independence to the first ten years of the 21st century, Central Asian countries, especially Hawu as the leading force, carried out regional integration efforts. Although they encountered many difficulties, the two countries did not give up the idea of seeking high-level cooperative relations. In September 2017, with the normalization of relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan proposed at the United Nations General Assembly to hold a regular consultation meeting of leaders of Central Asian countries. The Central Asian Summit has become an important mechanism for regional cooperation, and Central Asian integration has once again become an important agenda for regional affairs.
Central Asia is a transportation hub in the Eurasian region and one of the regions richest in energy and natural resources in the world. However, Central Asia lacks outlets to the sea. In the process of integrating into economic globalization, Hawu especially feels that promoting regional integration and providing regional commodities The importance of opening up channels to East Asia and South Asia. Therefore, after Mirziyoyev and Tokayev came to power, they provided new impetus for promoting regional integration, especially the establishment of Hau integration. With the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022, the pattern of the Eurasian region has undergone profound changes, and the political, economic and security situation in Central Asia has become fragile and complicated. strong. Sir Chakrabarty, advisor to the President of Kazakhstan, pointed out that the establishment of an alliance between the two countries can achieve simultaneous development in the political and economic fields, which is particularly important for the two countries and the entire region, and it is also important for other regions in the world.
The establishment of the Kazakhstan-Ukraine alliance will greatly promote the process of economic integration within Central Asia. In establishing a global channel for commodities, the two countries are complementary and indispensable. With the economic and social impact of the new crown epidemic on Central Asian countries and the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis and the Afghan issue becoming more and more obvious, it has become a high-level consensus among Central Asian countries to strengthen internal coordination and jointly cope with regional challenges.
Central Asia’s diplomacy presents a new pattern
Although the Hau-Uzbekistan alliance is mainly a political relationship in terms of the text of the treaty, which is far from the comprehensive integration of the two countries, it has clearly expressed the common will of Hau-Uzbekistan to realize regional integration. The direction of diplomatic strategic efforts of various countries. This move also opened up the prospects for Central Asian countries to independently handle regional affairs, marking that Central Asian countries will become more independent in terms of diplomatic strategy.
Raising the relationship between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to the level of an “alliance” will usher in a new era of Central Asian diplomacy, which is also a new opportunity for the relationship between developing countries and Central Asian countries. Central Asian countries, including Hawu, may have more new opportunities for cooperation with China within the framework of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and “China + five Central Asian countries”, thereby further consolidating the Central Asian countries Comprehensive strategic partnership with China. A more prosperous and stable Central Asia is what China would like to see and is beneficial to China.
