The Middle East has recently become an international hotspot. First, US President Biden visited Israel and Saudi Arabia non-stop, then Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Tehran to attend the Russia-Iran-Turkish summit, and then Turkish President Erdogan brokered a Russian-Ukrainian grain export in Istanbul. Agreements, news constantly, and major events occur one after another. In a sense, at a time when the United States is about to leave and Russia’s arms are emerging in the Middle East, there are four countries that deserve special attention.
Which four countries in the Middle East? Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey. Correspondingly, it is also the four major ethnic groups that have dominated the history of the Middle East for thousands of years: Jews, Arabs, Persians, and Turks. This is not to say that other countries are not important, for example, Egypt, is still an important player in the Middle East; Iraq, it may not be impossible to re-emerge in the future. But compared to these four countries, the importance has indeed decreased.
A historical background that cannot be ignored in the competition between the four countries is that the Arab-Israeli conflict is easing, the United States is withdrawing from the Middle East, and the spillover effect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also present. National interests are higher than historical grievances, and the previously intricate relationship between the four countries has resulted in a new round of integration and profound changes in geopolitics.
Take Israel as an example. Because of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel has been the common enemy of almost all Muslim countries in the past half century. Saudi Arabia and Israel have even met on the battlefield. Even in Turkey, Israel-Turkey relations have turned against each other several times. In the past few years, although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has continued, the Arab-Israeli conflict has been significantly eased. Palestine is helpless to see that one Arab country after another has established peace and diplomatic relations with Israel, and the Jewish people are ushering in the most friendly international environment for more than 2,000 years.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are close, and an important consideration is the Iran established by the Persians. Iran (Persia) has always been a dominant power in the Middle East. Regardless of whether the nuclear issue can be resolved or not, the rise of Iran will be a historical inevitability. Sunnis and Shiites have entangled thousands of years of grievances, Iran and Israel are mortally hostile, the enemy of the enemy is a friend, and Saudi Arabia and Israel have extended an olive branch to each other.
For Iran, although Western sanctions have put a lot of pressure on the country, the chaotic war between the United States and the West in the Middle East has given Iran a rare historical opportunity. Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, was originally Iran’s sworn enemy, but the U.S. invasion led to the rise of the Shiites, and now Iraq has effectively become an important partner of Iran. The color revolution led to the civil war in Syria, which objectively forced Damascus to rely more on Iran’s power.
As for Turkey, more than 100 years ago, the entire Middle East was the territory of Ottoman Turkey. But Western aggression, the awakening of the nation, eventually led the Turks to retreat to Asia Minor. However, under the leadership of Erdogan, Turkey has recently made a series of actions. Although it is a NATO country, it has close ties with Russia. Turkey also actively mediates the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and facilitates the agreement on the export of food. Turkey is indeed impressive.
The four countries have cooperation and even more struggle. Behind it, there is the intervention of the major powers of the United States and Russia. The most important task of Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia this time is to prompt Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, help lower U.S. oil prices, and at the same time curb Russia’s influence. But the grievances between the United States and Saudi Arabia, especially Biden’s previous criticism of Saudi Crown Prince Salman Jr., led Saudi Arabia to refuse to answer Biden’s phone calls.
After Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Putin’s visit to Iran is of course not just a coincidence. It also shows Putin’s wariness of the United States. To a certain extent, it also warns Saudi Arabia and other countries that Russia also has friends in the Middle East, and damage to Russia’s interests must be done. will be more than worth the loss. In fact, to Biden’s disappointment, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Middle Eastern countries generally refused to follow the West and adopted a neutral wait-and-see attitude.
The future of the Middle East will undoubtedly be a pattern of competition among the four countries. This is a land rich in oil and war-torn. It would be a blessing to bring more peace to this land with the withdrawal of the United States.
Of course, the United States is not willing to withdraw. What the United States is particularly afraid of is that the United States is concentrating on returning to the Asia-Pacific region and concentrating its efforts on China; but in the Middle East, China’s influence is expanding, and it has good relations with almost all Middle Eastern countries. This is actually the art of China’s diplomacy. You are enemies, but it doesn’t prevent us from being friends. Harmony makes money and we do business together. Such a result may be difficult for the United States to accept and even more difficult to emulate.
